Typhoon Bawei's path shifted north due to high pressure, Taiwan weather agency explains

Despite Typhoon Bawei moving away from Taiwan, many residents felt the predicted storm intensity did not materialize. However, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) clarified that while the storm's core passed north of the island, significant wind and rain were still experienced.

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The typhoon center was about 200 kilometers away from Taiwan, so the strongest ten-level winds and rain near the center were at sea and did not reach land.

The CWA had anticipated a northward track for Bawei, with its intensity estimated between a moderate and strong typhoon. However, changes in the shape of the northern high-pressure system caused the typhoon's path to shift further north. This resulted in the storm's strongest winds and heaviest rainfall remaining offshore, with the center passing approximately 200 kilometers north of Taiwan.

Forecasters at the CWA, including Chang Cheng-chuan and Lin Ting-yi, explained the interactions between high-pressure systems and typhoons. Bawei's large radius influenced the steering currents, pushing its path northward. The typhoon also weakened due to unfavorable conditions over the Ryukyu Islands, including vertical wind shear and low sea heat content, compounded by unsuccessful eyewall replacement cycles.

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The CWA's typhoon verification for Bawei performed well among major countries, and its long-term path forecast using AI models was good, outperforming traditional dynamic models.

The CWA emphasized its proactive approach to forecasting, continuously adjusting the typhoon's path and intensity. They highlighted that their AI models provided strong long-term path forecasts, outperforming traditional dynamic models. Despite the storm's center staying at sea, coastal areas experienced strong gusts of 9 to 11 on the Beaufort scale, with some areas like Pingtung's Jiupeng and Orchid Island recording gusts up to level 14. Mountainous areas in the west also saw heavy rainfall, with Miaoli's Lakus recording 770.5 mm.

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In terms of rainfall, the mountainous areas in the west were the most affected, especially in the north. Miaoli's Lakus recorded the highest cumulative rainfall of 770.5 mm.