Typhoon Mikala Forms; Forecaster Highlights Path Divergence Key

Typhoon Mikala, the seventh tropical storm of the season, has formed west of Guam and is expected to strengthen into a moderate typhoon. Taiwan's Central Weather Administration is closely monitoring its trajectory.

Jia Xin-xing, director of Taiwan's Integrated Disaster Prevention Technology Consulting Co., shared predicted paths from various forecasting models. He noted that the storm's movement is primarily influenced by the steering flow of the Pacific high-pressure system, leading to forecast discrepancies. While the storm is expected to move northwest for the next 72 hours, its path becomes uncertain afterward, with models diverging significantly.

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The main uncertainty in the forecast still stems from the Pacific high-pressure system's steering flow.

Jia highlighted that European model forecasts, including the European AI forecast (AIFS), show different potential paths. He pointed out that past validation suggests AIFS is more accurate than the European model for typhoons more than four days out. Mikala's development presents a valuable case study for observing the capabilities of AI in long-range typhoon forecasting, and the public is advised to continue tracking its progress.

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Past validation shows that AIFS has a significantly better grasp of the large-scale environment for typhoons beyond four days compared to the European model.