U.S. intel agencies warn Putin could test NATO with provocative actions

U.S. intelligence agencies have issued a warning that Russian President Vladimir Putin might be increasingly inclined to authorize provocative actions, with the potential to spill over into NATO territory. These assessments suggest a notable shift in Putin's risk calculus compared to recent months, according to U.S. officials briefed on the matter.

The potential actions are described as hybrid operations, cyberattacks, and other deniable measures that fall short of a conventional military campaign. Officials believe the primary goal would not necessarily be to ignite a wider conflict, but rather to test the unity of NATO and gauge the Trump administration's resolve in responding to an attack on a member state.

Recent events have heightened these concerns. The discovery of an explosive-laden drone at an airport in Leipzig, Germany, is assessed by the U.S. to be of Russian origin. This follows a pattern of other incidents, including Russian drone incursions into Romania and a Russian missile crossing into Polish airspace last month. A broader increase in suspected sabotage, cyber operations, and other hybrid tactics across Europe has also been observed.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and other European leaders have consistently warned about Russia's expanding use of hybrid tactics. Rutte previously stated that "We are Russia's next target, and we are already in harm's way," cautioning that Moscow could be prepared to use military force against NATO within five years. The U.S. assessments emerge as Russia continues to suffer significant losses in Ukraine, with battlefield estimates suggesting new recruits survive only a short time due to Ukraine's advanced drone technology. U.S. officials estimate Russia is losing approximately 30,000 troops monthly, a rate that outpaces its recruitment capabilities.

“

We are Russia's next target, and we are already in harm's way