Ukraine's Ex-Defense Minister Warns of Losing War, Cites Government Inefficiency

Ukraine is "slowly losing the war" against Russia, according to former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, who warns Kyiv has only months to make critical decisions to reverse the conflict's trajectory. Fedorov, a young reformist who was dismissed last month, stated in a Reuters interview that Ukraine lacks a cohesive vision for victory and is hampered by a lack of innovation. He pointed to deeply entrenched corruption and a network of vested interests, along with a lack of political independence in government agencies, as significant impediments to progress. "I think we are at a turning point that determines our future direction, but it seems we are gradually, slowly losing this war," Fedorov said, a stark contrast to official Kyiv narratives. He believes Ukraine still has "ample opportunity" to win but urgently needs a plan to end the war. Fedorov, who was dismissed after only six months in office, had pushed for reforms in procurement and mobilization, which led to conflicts with the military establishment and political rivals. He stressed the critical role of developing AI-guided autonomous drones, inexpensive interceptor missiles for Russian air attacks, and Ukraine's own ballistic missile programs to turn the tide. While Ukrainian manufacturers are developing these technologies, Fedorov insists on an integrated strategy for their effective deployment. He envisions widespread deployment of electronic sensors on the front lines, coupled with ground and aerial drones, to minimize personnel exposure. "Technologies exist that can completely stop the Russians, but we lack the vision... meaning we are not applying these technologies," he stated. Fedorov also criticized the Ukrainian government for wasting potential and inefficiency, claiming the state operates at "only 5% efficiency." He was a key proponent of a drone operation earlier this year targeting Russian fuel and military logistics in occupied southern Ukraine, which disrupted Russian front-line forces. He sees a window of several months to continue such operations and isolate Russian-occupied Crimea before Russia develops countermeasures. These strikes have been a significant factor in shifting perceptions of Ukraine's war prospects. The Ukrainian presidential office responded that Fedorov's perspective on the war's progress was always positive during his tenure, implying only his personal status has changed. Fedorov's recent calls for elections have drawn public dissatisfaction, with polls showing low public willingness for wartime elections. President Zelenskyy publicly condemned Fedorov's election demands, arguing they could undermine Ukraine's resistance against Russia.

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I think we are at a turning point that determines our future direction, but it seems we are gradually, slowly losing this war.