Ukraine War Enters Fifth Year with No End in Sight, Analysts Say

More than 1600 days have passed since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine began, yet the conflict remains at a stalemate. Neither Kyiv nor Moscow has achieved its initial objectives, with the Ukrainian people proving to be a formidable force in defending their nation.

Analysts Vladimir Trapara and Dragoslav Rašeta suggest the war is unlikely to end before the end of 2026. The passage of time has seen numerous global events, from Donald Trump's potential return to the US presidency and the expansion of trade wars, to the conflict in the Middle East, US-China rivalry, the mainstreaming of artificial intelligence, and even Lionel Messi leading Argentina to a World Cup victory. These events, occurring since February 24, 2022, have somewhat diverted public attention from the ongoing war in Ukraine, which was initially predicted to be short-lived.

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In the political sense, both countries appear stable, and this applies equally to the autocratic regime in Moscow and the wartime democratic regime in Kyiv. It is not observed that any internal turbulence on either side can resolve the conflict in the near future.

The current battlefield situation is characterized by Ukraine's increasing capacity for deep strikes into Russian territory, though Russia maintains the initiative in capturing or holding ground. Russia also possesses strong retaliatory capabilities, striking deep into Ukrainian territory. Politically, both nations appear stable, with neither the autocratic regime in Moscow nor the wartime democratic government in Kyiv showing signs of internal turmoil that could resolve the conflict soon.

Human cost estimates vary significantly. The US Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimates Russian losses, including killed, wounded, and missing, at around 1.4 million, with approximately 450,000 fatalities. British intelligence agency GCHQ reported nearly 500,000 deaths. The Kremlin has also recruited a large number of personnel for the war effort.

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The current situation on the ground can be characterized as a phase in which Ukraine shows an increase in capacity for attacks deep into Russian territory, but without a change in terms of initiative on the battlefield for retaining or capturing new territory, which is still clearly on Russia's side.