Ukraine war unlikely to end soon, expert predicts fragile peace

The war in Ukraine is unlikely to end soon, with expert Ana Maria Albulescu predicting it will continue at its current intensity for at least another year. Albulescu, a political scientist and expert in post-Soviet conflicts at the University of Tartu, Estonia, believes that any future agreements will likely be fragile armistices rather than a definitive peace treaty.

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I don't see the end of this war yet, although many people claim it is close. That is, I believe we will see this war for at least another year. And victims will continue on both sides, it will continue at the same intensity, I believe.

"I don't see the end of this war yet, although many people claim it is close," Albulescu stated in an interview with Adevărul. "That is, I believe we will see this war for at least another year. And victims will continue on both sides, it will continue at the same intensity, I believe."

Following this prolonged period of intense conflict, Albulescu anticipates a series of successive armistices. However, she cautions that this will not constitute a true peace agreement. "After that, we can have an armistice, maybe even several successive armistices, but it will not be a peace treaty in the true sense of the word. And after that, we will see some kind of Minsk, but it will only be apparent peace, because unrest will continue and the conflict will be semi-frozen, perhaps."

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After that, we can have an armistice, maybe even several successive armistices, but it will not be a peace treaty in the true sense of the word. And after that, we will see some kind of Minsk, but it will only be apparent peace, because unrest will continue and the conflict will be semi-frozen, perhaps.

Albulescu suggests that population pressure could eventually lead to an armistice. She also raised the possibility of elections taking place in Ukraine at some point. "I think the pressure of the population will lead to an armistice, as I said, and in Ukraine we might even have elections at some point. Nothing is certain, nothing is set in stone, but it could come to this," she explained. She foresees a scenario akin to "Minsk 3, or Minsk 4, or Minsk 5, perhaps," indicating a series of fragile agreements rather than a lasting resolution.

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I think the pressure of the population will lead to an armistice, as I said, and in Ukraine we might even have elections at some point. Nothing is certain, nothing is set in stone, but it could come to this.