UN Warns El Niño Rapidly Strengthening, Poised for 'Strong Intensity'

The United Nations has issued a stark warning regarding the rapid intensification of the El Niño climate phenomenon. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), El Niño conditions have emerged in the tropical Pacific and are expected to strengthen significantly, reaching a "strong intensity" between July and September. This phase corresponds to level 3 on a 4-point scale, indicating a heightened risk of extreme weather events worldwide.

The WMO's seasonal climate bulletin highlights that the developing El Niño event will increase the probability of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall, and other severe weather phenomena across numerous regions. This forecast builds upon earlier assessments, including a June 2nd announcement by the WMO and confirmation from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on June 11th that El Niño had begun in May.

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The El Niño phenomenon is already present and expected to intensify rapidly to reach a strong intensity.

El Niño is a natural climate pattern that typically occurs every two to seven years, lasting for about nine to twelve months. It is characterized by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This warming disrupts global wind patterns, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation regimes, exerting a more pronounced influence on global temperatures in the year following its onset.

Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the WMO, stated that the phenomenon is already present and expected to intensify rapidly. "It will increase the probabilities of drought and heavy precipitation, as well as the risks of terrestrial and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world," she added. The previous El Niño episode, which occurred in 2023 and 2024, contributed to those years being the two hottest on record. The WMO notes a high degree of confidence in the forecast, with global centers' predictions showing a consistent and significant rise in ocean temperatures in the affected Pacific regions, with seasonal averages expected to exceed 2°C above normal.

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It will increase the probabilities of drought and heavy precipitation, as well as the risks of heatwaves on land and at sea in many regions of the world.