Undocumented Population in U.S. Nears 16 Million in 2024; Central and South Americans Displace Mexicans

The number of undocumented immigrants residing in the United States surged to 15.8 million in 2024, marking a substantial rise from the approximately 11 million recorded throughout the 2010s. This growth, detailed in a study by the Migration Policy Institute (MPI), is attributed to increased border crossings and the Biden administration's prior efforts to manage border chaos.

Central and South Americans have increasingly become the dominant groups within the undocumented population, significantly outnumbering Mexicans. In 2024, Mexicans represented 35% of this demographic, a notable decrease from 62% in 2010 and 49% in 2019. Over the period of 2019 to 2024, immigrants from Central America increased by 2.3 million, primarily from Honduras and Guatemala. Migration from South America also grew by 1.3 million in the same timeframe, with significant contributions from Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, and Brazil.

Looking ahead, analysts suggest that the undocumented immigrant population might stabilize or even decline starting in 2025. This projection is linked to the anticipated impact of Donald Trump's restrictive immigration policies and potentially increased deportations. If border entries remain at their current low levels and deportations rise considerably, experts predict a decrease in the undocumented population in the coming years.

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If the administration manages to considerably increase deportations and if border entries remain at their notably low levels, the undocumented immigrant population could begin to decrease in 2026 and beyond.