US has not won battle to subjugate Iran's economy; sanctions aim to pressure domestically, says expert

The current standoff between the United States and Iran represents a war of economic and political attrition, according to military and strategic expert Brigadier General Ayman Al-Rousan. He explained that while Washington asserts success in its sanctions regime, particularly in halting Iranian oil exports, Tehran maintains it possesses prior revenues and reserves that enable it to withstand the pressure.

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The current situation reflects a war of economic and political attrition between the United States and Iran.

Al-Rousan clarified that Iran's reference to oil revenues does not imply a continuation of previous export levels but rather points to funds accumulated and deposited in the Central Bank before the latest round of sanctions intensified. He added that while the US has succeeded in narrowing the scope of Iranian oil exports, it has not definitively won the battle to subjugate Iran's economy. This is largely due to Tehran's strategic leverage, most notably its influence over the Strait of Hormuz.

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Washington asserts the success of the blockade in stopping Iranian oil exports, while Tehran indicates it possesses previous resources and revenues that help it endure.

The expert further elaborated that the United States has been unable to achieve a decisive victory through military means, partly due to the high cost such action would entail for American forces and the domestic U.S. public. Consequently, Washington has opted for economic sanctions and blockades as a less costly alternative, though one that requires a longer timeframe to yield significant impact.

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The United States has succeeded in tightening the noose on Iranian oil exports, but it has not decided the battle to subjugate the Iranian economy.

Al-Rousan emphasized that the tightening of sanctions directly impacts Iran's economy and, consequently, its internal conditions. He suggested that the U.S. may be banking on the deteriorating economic situation to fuel popular discontent and potentially incite internal movements that could challenge the stability of the Iranian regime. While the U.S. has achieved operational successes, such as clearing mines and securing vessel passage, these do not equate to complete control over maritime routes, as Iran retains the capacity to influence navigation and increase associated costs.

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Washington may be betting that the deterioration of economic conditions will lead to increased popular pressure on the Iranian regime, and perhaps the emergence of internal movement that could threaten its stability.