US intelligence warns Iran may escalate conflict and prolong pressure on Washington

Iran has emerged from months of intermittent fighting more confident in its military capabilities and may be preparing to keep the conflict going for months, according to recent US intelligence assessments reviewed by current and former officials.

The assessments follow a new round of exchanges. Over the past week, Iran targeted ships in the Strait of Hormuz and US troops in the region, while US forces struck inside Iran, killing military personnel and civilians. The exchanges have so far remained limited, but the reports suggest Iran’s hard-line government could be considering a significant escalation.

Officials said Iran now has a better understanding of its military strengths. The reports also indicate that a deal to fully end the war could prove difficult. Some officials said Iran showed little sign of wanting an agreement with Washington and might be content to worsen President Donald Trump’s political problems ahead of the US midterm elections.

Trump is not pursuing negotiations for now. He has said economic pressure could force Tehran to make concessions over its control of the Strait of Hormuz and, eventually, its nuclear program. Officials who reviewed the intelligence said sanctions were more likely to provoke escalation in the short term.

US officials said Iran could take actions similar to those in July, when it attacked American military bases in the Middle East, killing three Americans in Jordan, struck shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and hit infrastructure in Kuwait and elsewhere. Officials also believe Iran-linked hackers were most likely behind late-July cyberattacks on more than 100 US water systems. The attacks did not make water unsafe to drink, but some caused disruptions that required manual overrides and precautionary boil-water advisories. The hackers have also shown interest in US oil and gas infrastructure, although no energy-system breach has been identified.