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US-Iran ceasefire offers welcome respite but true peace looks distant as ever

From The Guardian · () English

Summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

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  • The US and Iran have reached a fragile ceasefire agreement, offering temporary relief in the Middle East but with doubts about its long-term effectiveness.
  • The 60-day interim deal aims to address contentious issues like Iran's nuclear program and frozen assets, but analysts believe a lasting peace remains distant.
  • The agreement includes a cessation of hostilities in Lebanon and free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, though past deals like the one in Gaza offer cautionary examples.

A fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran has been reached, offering a much-needed respite in the Middle East. However, relief is tempered with significant doubt about whether the deal will resolve the region's deep-seated problems or prevent future conflict.

While the agreement may allow the region to catch its breath, its success will depend on the ability of the parties involved to address the root causes of the tensions.

— Iyad JoummaA Jordanian engineer in Kuwait, speaking about the relief and doubt surrounding the US-Iran ceasefire.

Analysts widely view the agreement as a temporary solution, a "big Band-Aid" that does little more than commit both sides to further talks. The memorandum of understanding provides for a 60-day cessation of hostilities. During this period, negotiators will attempt to address critical issues such as Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, its nuclear program, international sanctions, and the release of billions in frozen Iranian assets. Few experts believe a final settlement is likely within such a short timeframe, recalling the lengthy 18-month process that led to the 2015 nuclear agreement, which was later abandoned.

It’s just a big Band-Aid and future conflict is like to come and some point.

— Neil QuilliamA Middle East expert at London's Chatham House, commenting on the interim deal.

The interim deal obliges Washington to lift its naval blockade of Iran and requires Tehran to ensure free passage for all shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway that typically carries a fifth of the world's oil and liquid gas supplies. The agreement also appears to impose a ceasefire in Lebanon, much to Israel's displeasure, though this is reportedly holding for the moment.

Gaza is a case in point. The deal there didn’t contend with the past: the war crimes that had been committed. Nor the present: how to disarm Hamas. Nor the future: a pathway to a viable Palestinian state and a resolution of the conflict.

— Alia BrahimiAn expert at the Atlantic Council in Washington, using Gaza as an example of a past deal's shortcomings.

However, the effectiveness of such ceasefires is questioned, with Gaza cited as a stark example. There, a previous US-brokered deal has seen little progress, with Israel occupying territory, Hamas retaining its weapons, and no clear path toward reconstruction or a viable Palestinian state. Experts suggest that ceasefires can sometimes be used as cover to continue pursuing military aims, highlighting the complex and unresolved nature of the region's conflicts.

It’s almost as if … you can use the cover of a ceasefire to continue to achieve your aims, including military ones.

— Alia BrahimiAn expert at the Atlantic Council in Washington, discussing the potential for ceasefires to be used strategically.
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Originally published by The Guardian. Summarized and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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