US-Iran nuclear deal a major setback for Israel, experts say

Israeli media and experts are voicing "enormous disappointment" and a sense of marginalization following reports of a U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement. Characterized by some as "the same as Obama's 2015 deal," the reported terms are particularly concerning for Israel regarding Iran's atomic program.

According to sources in both Washington and Jerusalem, the U.S. appears to be abandoning key negotiation points. Specifically, the U.S. may allow Iran to keep 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, provided it is depleted. This contrasts with earlier U.S. demands for Iran to surrender the material. The shift is deeply troubling for Israel, which fears it grants Iran more leeway to maintain enrichment capabilities.

Former President Donald Trump had previously demanded a complete halt to Iran's enrichment activities. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) permitted Iran to enrich uranium up to 3.6 percent, suitable for nuclear power plants. Trump withdrew the U.S. from the JCPOA in 2018, a move Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had advocated for. However, many experts doubted Trump could secure stricter terms than those in the JCPOA.

More recently, Trump has focused on Iran's promise not to acquire nuclear weapons, rather than an enrichment freeze. This perceived devaluation of U.S. demands is doubly problematic for Netanyahu. It provides Iran with more room to preserve its enrichment capacity and creates a difficult scenario for him to defend politically during an Israeli election campaign.

Past military actions, including a twelve-day conflict the previous year involving Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile facilities, were believed by both Trump and Netanyahu to have significantly degraded Iran's capabilities. However, it has since become clear that this assessment was overly optimistic. Iran's missile program, though damaged, remains operational, and the country has made no concrete concessions on its nuclear program. This situation, coupled with Iran's latest conditions regarding Lebanon, is equally alarming for Israel's leadership.