US-Led Plan to Disarm Iraqi Militias Faces Resistance, Israeli Security Institute Says

Iraq’s plan to disarm armed factions operating outside state control faces a September 30 deadline and deep resistance from groups closely tied to Iran, according to an assessment by Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies.

The paper, written by researcher Yaron Schneider, examines the challenges facing the government of Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi as it seeks to impose the rule of law. The deadline coincides with the end of the US-led international coalition mission, and the initiative is being driven by Washington.

Some groups, including Muqtada al-Sadr and other faction leaders, have shown a degree of openness to the plan for political and electoral reasons. The proposal has faced outright rejection from factions more closely linked to Tehran, including Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba. The paper says those groups responded with military escalation by targeting regional and international interests, prompting joint US-Saudi strikes deep inside Iraq.

The assessment highlights what it describes as Iran’s role in efforts to derail disarmament. It says the surrender of the factions is treated as a red line. At the same time, Iraq’s economic fragility and its growing reliance on diplomatic and economic ties with Western countries and Gulf capitals are adding pressure. The paper links that vulnerability to a resource shortage caused by the suspension of exports through the Strait of Hormuz.

The assessment says Baghdad’s ability to establish state authority, with US assistance, depends on dismantling armed strongholds and imposing security control on the ground without yielding to regional pressure. It puts the number of armed Shiite militias that Washington considers aligned with Iran at about 60. Their leaders and members are described as adhering to the doctrine of Wilayat al-Faqih and Iran’s transnational revolutionary principles, placing them in conflict with the Sadrist movement and creating a difficult relationship with Najaf’s religious authority.

The paper traces the militias’ growth to the 2003 US invasion and the collapse of Saddam Hussein’s government. Some took part in Iraq’s sectarian civil war in 2006, expanded their influence after US troops left in 2011, and gained formal legal cover in 2014 through the Popular Mobilization Forces. The umbrella group was created after Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani called for action against Islamic State, and included 119 Iraqi factions, 44 of them reportedly aligned with Iran according to US media.