US Reassesses Nuclear Policy Amid China's Arsenal Growth and Expired Arms Treaty

The United States is undertaking a significant review of its nuclear policy, a move prompted by China's swift development of its own nuclear arsenal and the recent expiration of the New START treaty, which previously capped strategic weapons between the US and Russia.

While the US and Russia have historically worked to reduce nuclear stockpiles, with an 80% reduction since the 1980s, China's capabilities have surged. In the past six years, Beijing has nearly tripled its nuclear weapons and is projected by the US Department of Defense to possess over 1,000 by 2030. Although still behind the US and Russia's deployed arsenals of approximately 1,550 each, this gap is rapidly closing.

Adding to the complexity, the New START treaty, the last formal limit on a potential nuclear arms race between Washington and Moscow, expired early this year without renewal. In response, the Trump administration announced a review of its nuclear program, with a focus on developing a larger, more diverse arsenal, including tactical nuclear weapons for battlefield use. Proponents argue these could provide more options against low-yield nuclear attacks, especially given Russia's larger tactical arsenal and China's potential development of similar systems.

However, some analysts argue that the US's primary challenge is not a lack of nuclear weapons, but the modernization of its existing arsenal. The US modernization program, initiated after the New START ratification in 2010 under President Barack Obama, faces its own set of issues. The debate highlights a critical juncture in global nuclear strategy, balancing deterrence with the risks of a new arms race.