US reportedly revamping nuclear strategy with focus on tactical weapons; impact on Korea unclear

The U.S. Department of Defense is reportedly spearheading a new nuclear strategy that prioritizes tactical nuclear weapons over massive strategic ones, aiming to counter China and Russia. This revised approach focuses on increasing the utility of low-yield nuclear weapons, designed for limited strikes against specific military targets, rather than large-scale strategic weapons capable of devastating entire cities.

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Adversaries have multiple nuclear use options, but the U.S. lacked means to counter them. Increasing low-yield nuclear weapons usable in real combat could enhance deterrence for allies like South Korea.

This strategic shift is expected to bolster the deterrence capabilities offered to U.S. allies, including South Korea and Japan. Experts suggest that by possessing more usable nuclear options, the U.S. can better counter the diverse nuclear capabilities of adversaries like China and Russia. North Korea's own advancements in tactical nuclear capabilities, such as its Hwasan-31 warhead, are also a factor in this evolving strategic landscape.

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Our government, as a responsible member of the international community, faithfully fulfills its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and is closely consulting on ways to strengthen our extended deterrence through the ROK-U.S. Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG).

South Korea and the U.S. are maintaining close communication on this matter through channels like the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG). A South Korean Foreign Ministry official stated that the government is committed to its Non-Proliferation Treaty obligations while strengthening extended deterrence cooperation with the U.S.

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From a political burden perspective, deploying tactical nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula would be difficult. However, there is a plan to maintain readiness for deployment if necessary during a crisis where the North uses nuclear weapons.

Despite the potential enhancement of deterrence, the immediate redeployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to the Korean Peninsula is considered unlikely. U.S. tactical nuclear arms were withdrawn in 1991 following the Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Analysts point to significant political hurdles and the risks associated with placing such weapons on the peninsula, which could become a primary target in a conflict. However, maintaining a readiness posture for potential deployment during heightened crises, particularly if North Korea employs nuclear weapons, remains a possibility.

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If deployed, U.S. tactical nuclear weapons here would be targeted by North Korea. The U.S. knows this risk, so the possibility of actual deployment is not high.