US warns Ebola outbreak could rival 2014 West Africa epidemic

US health officials are urging robust public health interventions to control the current Ebola outbreak, warning that it could escalate to the scale of the devastating 2014 West Africa epidemic.

“

That scale is possible.

Models developed by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) indicate that without significant improvements in patient identification, isolation, and treatment, the outbreak could surpass 20,000 cases within three months. Jason Asher, director of the CDC's Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics, stressed that these projections are planning tools designed to prompt action, not to cause alarm.

“

They’re designed to support action, not to generate alarm.

The CDC's analysis considers four intervention scenarios. If isolation levels are "poor," with no other measures, there is a 65 percent chance of exceeding 20,000 cases. Satish Pillai, CDC manager for the Ebola response, noted that current on-the-ground conditions suggest isolation levels are "on the lower end."

“

The public health response to control this outbreak will likely need to be of similar magnitude to the response for the 2014-2016 West Africa Ebola outbreak.

Meanwhile, the World Health Organization and the African Union's public health agency have appealed for $518 million over the next six months to combat the outbreak. Declared on May 15 in northeastern DR Congo, the outbreak involves the rare Bundibugyo species of Ebola. As of the latest figures, there are 381 confirmed cases in the DRC, including 64 deaths, primarily in the Ituri province. Uganda has reported 16 confirmed cases and one death.

“

the total individuals that are infected and requiring isolation remains unclear.