USGS: 8% chance of magnitude 6.0+ aftershock in Venezuela next week

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has issued a technical report warning of a low but persistent probability of significant aftershocks following Venezuela's recent double earthquake. The agency estimates an 8% chance, or about 1 in 12, of an aftershock registering a magnitude 6.0 or higher in the coming week.

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there is 8 % of probability (approximately 1 between 12) of that an aftershock with a magnitude greater than 6.0 occurs during the next week.

This assessment follows the analysis of the June 24 earthquakes, which destabilized geological faults in the country's northern region. Specialists from the international agency explained that secondary seismic movements are inevitable and will continue to manifest in the territory over the next few days.

The technical report details that while the frequency of tremors is gradually decreasing, the possibility of a moderate to strong seismic event remains latent within normal statistical margins for such occurrences. The remaining seismicity is attributed to the Earth's crust readjusting after the massive energy release from the initial quakes.

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the possibility of a seismic event of moderate to great intensity remains latent within the normal statistical margins for this type of event.

The USGS stated it is maintaining constant monitoring through its satellite network to update probability curves and keep risk management agencies in South America informed. Experts cautioned that aftershocks exceeding magnitude 6.0 possess sufficient force to cause additional damage to structures already weakened or partially fractured by the initial earthquakes.

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aftershocks of magnitude greater than 6.0 have enough force to cause additional damage to structures that are already affected or partially fractured.