USMCA reviews pause auto projects, boost tech real estate in Mexico

Annual reviews of the USMCA trade agreement are creating a "wait-and-see" mode for real estate projects tied to Mexico's automotive sector, according to global real estate firm CBRE. However, the report indicates a medium-term resurgence in projects linked to the technology cluster.

The Market View report on Mexico City's industrial sector highlights that the USMCA reviews have not introduced immediate changes to rules of origin, tariffs, investment, energy, or labor regulations. While a potential extension of certain provisions has been postponed, it could be announced at any time. This ongoing uncertainty, stemming from the annual reviews, is prompting structural adjustments, but the market had anticipated this and is now adapting.

“

The annual reviews of the treaty are generating structural uncertainty, but the market was already anticipating it and is reacting accordingly.

CBRE anticipates a gradual recovery in demand for industrial real estate spaces, beginning with light manufacturing. As market certainty returns, heavier manufacturing is expected to rebound to pre-USMCA renegotiation levels, mirroring patterns seen during the previous NAFTA renegotiation. Meanwhile, trade volumes between Mexico and the United States continue to expand amid a global economic reconfiguration.

Tenant demand is increasingly focused on diversified manufacturing, which saw a significant increase in interest, along with logistics and transportation sectors. Technology is also gaining prominence, with Mexico, Taiwan, and Vietnam accelerating their roles as sources for U.S. computer imports, reflecting the growth of tech clusters in semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and data centers. While Mexico maintains a strong position in automotive trade with the U.S., this volume seems to have stabilized in the current economic cycle.

“

Mexico maintains a solid position in its trade volumes with the United States, consolidating its role as a key platform in North America's automotive supply chain.