Uzbekistan's economic growth forecast raised to 8.1%

Uzbekistan's economic outlook for 2026 has been significantly boosted, with the Ministry of Economy and Finance revising its growth forecast upward to 8.1%. This marks an increase from the previous projection of 6.6% and would represent the strongest economic performance in recent years, surpassing last year's 7.7% growth.

The upward revision is driven by several key factors, including higher global gold prices, robust growth in service exports fueled by a surge in tourist arrivals, and fuller utilization of industrial capacity. The relative stability of the Uzbek soum against the U.S. dollar also contributes to this positive outlook.

Market-based services are anticipated to be the primary engine of growth, with an expected expansion of 16.6%. Industrial output is projected to grow by 8%, construction by 12.4%, and the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector by 5%. Domestic demand is expected to be supported by a 20% increase in non-gold exports, a 12.9% rise in fixed capital investment, and approximately 10% growth in remittance inflows.

In line with the stronger economic expectations, the ministry has also revised its inflation forecast downward to 6.5% from 7%, while unemployment is anticipated to remain at 4.5%. Nominal GDP is now projected to reach 2.183 quadrillion soums, approximately $180 billion, exceeding the state budget's approved figure by 207 trillion soums. The fiscal deficit is expected to be maintained within 3% of GDP.