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🇻🇪 Venezuela /Disasters & Emergencies

Venezuela earthquakes do not officially alter U.S. transition plan, analysts say

From El Nacional · () Spanish

Translated from Spanish, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

News Named sources Context piece
  • The U.S. plan for a democratic transition in Venezuela remains officially unchanged despite recent earthquakes, according to Washington.
  • Analysts suggest the plan's continuation depends on societal acceptance, with some believing the disaster could accelerate the transition while others fear it might slow it down.
  • Experts argue that the earthquakes have exposed the Venezuelan state's inability to protect its citizens, necessitating an adaptation of the transition strategy to the new material and political reality.

The United States maintains that its three-phase plan for a democratic transition in Venezuela is unaffected by the recent earthquakes, stating the route for normalization, recovery, and transition remains intact. However, analysts offer a more nuanced view.

While that aspiration is not translated into a forceful manifestation, it is not to be expected that the plan will be altered in that direction. On the contrary, its application could slow down.

— Alejandro Armas DíazArmas Díaz's assessment of the potential impact of public sentiment on the U.S. transition plan.

Political analyst Alejandro Armas Díaz believes the plan could proceed if society accepts it, noting that the earthquakes have fueled a desire among many Venezuelans for a swift transition. He cautions, however, that without "forceful manifestation" of this aspiration, the plan might not change and could even slow down. Armas recalls that U.S. Chargé d'Affaires John Barrett acknowledged efforts would need to be redoubled for the recovery phase due to the disaster, yet reiterated that President Donald Trump's plan "remains intact."

The plan of President Donald Trump remains intact.

— John BarrettThe U.S. Chargé d'Affaires in Caracas affirming the continuity of the transition strategy.

Political scientist Walter Molina argues that the strategy must adapt not because its goals are flawed, but because the conditions have changed. He explains that the earthquakes have altered the country's material reality and revealed the state's failure to protect its people, describing the current government as a "criminal tyranny that strikes them."

Strategies must respond to reality and not the other way around. If reality changes radically, the strategy must also do so.

— Walter MolinaMolina's argument for adapting the transition plan to the post-earthquake reality in Venezuela.

Molina contends that the focus has shifted from dismantling an authoritarian regime to identifying who can lead a devastated country and protect millions. "Strategies must respond to reality, not the other way around," he states, drawing a parallel to Hugo Chávez's Constituent Assembly after the Vargas landslide in 1999, which strengthened his project. In contrast, Molina sees the current tragedy as exposing the regime's weakness, not strengthening it, due to the state's evident destruction and inability to manage a national emergency.

We are no longer talking solely about how to dismantle an authoritarian regime, but about who has the capacity to lead a devastated country and protect the lives of millions of people.

— Walter MolinaMolina highlighting the shift in priorities following the earthquakes.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by El Nacional in Spanish. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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