Victoria Election: National Stakes Rise Amid Party Turmoil and One Nation's Surge

Victoria's state election on November 28 is shaping up to be more dramatic and significant than anticipated, with national political implications becoming increasingly apparent. Recent shifts, including a change in premier and leadership changes within the Liberal Party, coupled with a strong showing from the One Nation party, have transformed the political landscape.

For the federal Liberal Party, a victory for state opposition leader Jess Wilson would provide a much-needed boost of confidence. Conversely, a strong performance by One Nation, particularly in the upper house but also in securing lower house seats, would further exacerbate the ongoing crises within both the Liberal and National parties. The contest between the conservative Liberal-National Coalition and One Nation is seen as crucial for the conservatives' prospects of governing the state.

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serious and concerning conduct by senior public officers, including ministers, members of Parliament and public servants, relating to the negotiation of the CFA [Country Fire Authority] EBA, which increased the risk of corrupt conduct.

Predicting the election outcome is challenging. The incumbent Labor government holds a substantial majority buffer, requiring the opposition to gain 16 seats for a majority. However, the Labor brand is considered toxic, a perception amplified by a recent report from the Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission (IBAC). This report detailed "serious and concerning conduct" by senior public officials, including ministers, during negotiations for a firefighters' union agreement, even though it did not find evidence of criminal corruption.

Premier Ben Carroll, installed to minimize Labor's losses, has distanced himself from the conduct exposed by the IBAC report. Meanwhile, former Premier Daniel Andrews and the head of the United Firefighters' Union, Peter Marshall, have emphasized the lack of a corruption finding. If Labor manages to hold onto power, even in a minority government, it would be considered a significant political achievement.

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This included actions contrary to policy, procedure and codes of conduct, deliberate attempts to conceal and mislead, and the misuse of information.