Voter turnout is the final variable in South Korea's upcoming elections

South Korea's upcoming June 3 local and parliamentary by-elections are just ten days away, with campaigning set to intensify nationwide. While elections are often described as festivals of democracy, historical patterns indicate that the final results are rarely swayed by campaign activities alone. The fundamental dynamics of the election, the political landscape and the candidates themselves, are typically decided much earlier.

This election is framed as a mid-term assessment of President Lee Jae-myung's first year in office. His job approval rating remains robust, hovering in the 60% range, which makes it challenging for the conservative People Power Party to mobilize a "regime change" narrative. In contrast, the Democratic Party appears to have an advantage in both the political structure and candidate selection. This year, the Democratic Party has replaced all its incumbent metropolitan mayors, while the People Power Party has re-nominated all of its incumbents.

Four years ago, the situation was reversed. Following President Yoon Suk-yeol's inauguration in May, the June local elections were seen as an immediate referendum on his administration. The Democratic Party, then in power, found it difficult to campaign on a "regime change" platform. The People Power Party, conversely, nominated fresh faces who went on to win key mayoral races in Daegu, Ulsan, Gangwon, Chungbuk, Chungnam, and Gyeongnam provinces. Polls at the time accurately predicted these outcomes, with incumbent mayors losing in several key races.

Recent polling shows President Lee's approval rating at 64%, a significant figure compared to previous presidents at the one-year mark. Party support also shows the Democratic Party leading the People Power Party by a considerable margin. However, the gap between those who believe "ruling party candidates should win" and those who believe "opposition candidates should win" has narrowed recently. This suggests a potential consolidation of conservative support, particularly in key battlegrounds like Seoul, which could influence the overall election results. The outcome in these closely watched races, especially Seoul, will likely determine the broader narrative of the election.