Waiting for a deal with Trump: The economy fears a second tariff hammer

Swiss businesses are bracing for potential U.S. tariffs as the current agreement on Swiss goods expires on July 24. The looming uncertainty has prompted calls for urgent negotiations, with business representatives emphasizing the detrimental impact higher tariffs could have on exports. The Swiss government is keen to secure a deal that maintains the agreed-upon tariff ceiling of 15%.

President Guy Parmelin is set to travel to Washington next week for discussions with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. The primary goal is to finalize a legally binding agreement, though the possibility of a less formal declaration of intent remains. This distinction is significant, as a binding treaty would require parliamentary approval and could face a referendum, while an intent declaration is politically simpler.

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We must be aware: Absolute legal certainty does not exist under the current US administration anyway.

Industry associations like Swissmem and the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry advocate for a legally binding contract, viewing it as crucial for providing a minimum level of security for Swiss companies. However, even proponents acknowledge the inherent unpredictability of the current U.S. administration's trade policies. Rahul Sahgal of the Swiss-American Chamber of Commerce notes that absolute legal certainty is elusive, advising Switzerland to focus on consistently implementing its own commitments from the November 2025 Joint Statement.

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A legally binding agreement would create a minimum level of security.