War against Ukraine: Moscow economist predicts Russian defeat - dismissal

Andrei Klepatsch, a highly respected economist in Russia, has reportedly lost his job as chief economist at the state development corporation VEB.RF after predicting Russia's defeat in its war against Ukraine and warning of an impending economic crisis. The dismissal, reported by several Russian media outlets on Sunday evening, follows Klepatsch's candid assessments of the nation's economic and military trajectory.

Klepatsch had previously been quoted stating that it was impossible for Russia to win the war of attrition against Ukraine. He also expressed conviction that Russia was heading towards a crisis. According to "The Moscow Times," Klepatsch had, as early as May, asserted in a lecture that Ukraine would economically survive, stating, "We are under the illusion that everything will collapse there [in Ukraine]. It has not collapsed and will not collapse." He contrasted this with Russia's rising costs and predicted the country would fall behind in global technological and economic competition.

These statements are particularly significant given the consistent narrative from Russia's power apparatus and state corporations, which maintain that the situation is under control despite existing problems. President Vladimir Putin, who ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, repeatedly asserts that Russia will prevail, yet his war aims remain unachieved. Meanwhile, Russia faces mounting daily economic challenges.

Alexander Prokopenko, an expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Berlin, noted that Klepatsch has never shied away from expressing his opinions. The independent portal "The Bell" reported that VEB.RF chief Igor Shuvalov dismissed Klepatsch following "a call from above," implying Kremlin involvement. Shuvalov, a former deputy prime minister and a Putin confidant, reportedly received confirmation of the dismissal from Klepatsch himself, though no reasons were officially stated. "Vedomosti" newspaper, citing sources within VEB.RU, suggested Klepatsch was let go because his personal assessments of Russia's economic and political development were incompatible with the state corporation's official positions.