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War historian: Putin's regime could be nearing collapse
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช Estonia /Conflict & Security

War historian: Putin's regime could be nearing collapse

From Postimees · () Estonian

Translated from Estonian, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

Analysis Named sources Context piece
  • Russia possesses sufficient human resources, weaponry, and territory to sustain a prolonged conflict in Ukraine, potentially for years, according to war historian Jรผri Kotลกinev.
  • Moscow aims for international recognition of its annexed territories, a demand Ukraine rejects, while avoiding a large-scale mobilization due to fears of domestic unrest.
  • Western support, particularly from the US, is crucial for Ukraine's success, as global sentiment favors winners, and future Russia-Ukraine relations are unlikely to normalize for at least a decade.

Russia's extensive resources, human, military, and territorial, suggest the conflict in Ukraine could continue for years, war historian Jรผri Kotลกinev writes. While Ukraine relies on sustained Western backing, Russia faces internal political considerations regarding further mobilization.

Kremlin officials desire international acknowledgment of Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, and occupied territories in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia as legitimate Russian lands. This demand is unacceptable to Ukraine. The historian also deems Belarus's entry into the war highly improbable at this juncture.

Crucially, US support for Ukraine remains vital. Kotลกinev notes that global admiration gravitates towards victors, and successful Ukrainian military operations could sway the US administration further towards Kyiv. He predicts that normalized relations between Russia and Ukraine will not occur for at least a decade after the war's conclusion. Many European nations wish to resume economic ties with Russia, but not with a nation actively engaged in war with Ukraine.

DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by Postimees in Estonian. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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