Warning Signs Appeared Days Before Nepal Glacier Collapse, Scientists Say

Satellite images showed changes on the glacier days before it collapsed in the Nepal-Tibet border region, according to a rapid assessment by international scientists. The finding has raised questions about whether stronger disaster preparation could have prevented hundreds of workers from becoming trapped at hydropower projects hit by the resulting floods.

Jakob Steiner, a geologist advising the Nepali government on Himalayan disaster risks and a co-author of the HiRISK assessment, said early-warning systems for construction workers were “very weak.” The report said no system for glacier-related hazards had been installed in the affected area.

The assessment said the initial avalanche moved so quickly that conventional systems would have provided little warning, probably not enough to evacuate people at the Nepal-China border crossing at Rasuwagadhi, also known as Gyirong Port. Further downstream, however, warning times of 10 minutes or more could have allowed comprehensive systems to save a significant number of lives.

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very weak

The disaster damaged highways, dams, tunnels and hydropower plants built along the border by China and Nepal over the past decade. More than 3,900 people are missing and at least 1,000 have died. Hundreds of Nepali, Chinese and Indian workers are believed to be among the missing.

On Monday, Nepal’s government said about 933 workers were believed trapped at roughly half a dozen hydropower projects. Authorities have evacuated about 300 workers from a collapsed Upper Trishuli tunnel. The HiRISK report was prepared by experts from the Asian Mountain Academic Alliance, the Stimson Center and China’s Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment.

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there were some pre-event indications