Wartime Operational Control Transfer to South Korea Possible by Late 2027, Defense Ministry Says

The Ministry of National Defense has indicated that the transfer of wartime operational control (SITREP) from the United States to South Korea could be achievable by late 2027, provided that consultations between the two allies proceed smoothly. A roadmap for this transfer is expected to be finalized before the upcoming Korea-U.S. Annual Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) in October. This roadmap will serve as the basis for preparing the transition and post-transfer operations.

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The roadmap will be completed before the Korea-U.S. Annual Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) in October, and based on this roadmap, we will prepare for the transfer of wartime operational control and post-transfer operations.

Currently, South Korea and the United States are engaged in a three-phase evaluation and verification process for the operational capabilities of the future Combined Forces Command, which will succeed the current ROK-US Combined Forces Command after the SITREP transfer. The initial operating capability (IOC) phase was completed in 2019 and verified in 2020. The full operating capability (FOC) phase was assessed in 2022, and its verification is planned for this year's SCM. Following the successful verification, the defense ministers of both nations will recommend a target year for the SITREP transfer to their respective presidents.

Once the target year is set, a preparation period of approximately one year is considered sufficient. If the defense ministers propose 2027 as the target year at the October SCM and the process is completed within a year, the transfer could be formally recommended by the end of 2027. This timeline would place the transfer before the end of Donald Trump's U.S. presidential term in January 2029.

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The transfer of wartime operational control is a matter decided at the policy and political level from beginning to end.

However, this timeline represents South Korea's aspirations. U.S. Forces Korea Commander Gen. Paul LaCamera has emphasized that "political expediency should not precede conditions," highlighting the importance of meeting the agreed-upon conditions for the SITREP transfer rather than adhering to a specific date. He has previously suggested a timeline extending into the first quarter of 2029, after Trump's potential term ends. Ultimately, the Ministry of National Defense acknowledges that the SITREP transfer is a decision made at the political level by the leaders of both South Korea and the United States, underscoring the diplomatic and political considerations involved in this significant military transition.

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Political expediency should not precede conditions.