Was Mossad recruitment of Ahmadinejad success or failure? - analysis

Recent revelations, detailed in The New York Times and corroborated by former head of Military Intelligence Tamir Hayman, expose a complex Mossad operation aimed at replacing Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei with former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The plan, shrouded in secrecy, reportedly involved a sequence of unique special operations, with a "Kurdish invasion" identified as a critical, yet ultimately unexecuted, component.

From the current vantage point, with Ahmadinejad under house arrest and the operation's details widely publicized, the plot is widely deemed an "abject failure." This outcome has cast a shadow over other recent Israeli intelligence successes. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps remains firmly in control of Iran, suggesting the regime-change objective was not met.

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Regarding Ahmadinejad, there was a sequence of special operations, very, very unique that was supposed to happen. And Ahmadinejad was a part of that sequence. The rest of the operations are not fully disclosed to the public, except for the Kurdish invasion.

However, Israeli perspectives suggest that external factors, particularly U.S. actions, may have been pivotal in the plan's downfall. Sources close to former Mossad chief David Barnea indicate that the U.S. was instrumental in the concept of using Kurdish forces to initiate an internal ground thrust against Iran's regime. This strategy echoes a similar operation in 2003 where U.S.-backed Kurds helped topple Saddam Hussein in Iraq. The decision by then-President Trump to cancel the operation involving the Kurds, influenced by Turkish strategic interests, is cited as a key reason for the failure of the broader plan to replace Khamenei.

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Because the centerpiece of all the sequence should have been started with the Kurdish invasion. According to what was published is that Erdogan, who really considered the Kurdish as a strategic threat to the stability of Turkey, convinced Trump that it's a bad idea to give the Kurds a state. And backing the Kurds goes against the interest of Turkey. And I think that had something to do with the decision of Trump to cancel this operation.