Western Balkans remain Europe's semi-periphery, analyst says

The Western Balkans remain a "semi-periphery" of Europe, a status that is likely to persist for some time, according to Vedran Džihić, a senior fellow at the Austrian Institute for International Affairs. He observed that the region mirrors broader European trends, particularly concerning evolving security paradigms.

Džihić anticipates that Europe's focus on strengthening its military industry and the EU's compass initiative will lead to a more selective approach to integration in its neighborhood. He foresees a division within the Western Balkans: some countries will align with NATO and adapt to European trends, while others will remain susceptible to hybrid influences and less willing to fully conform.

Geopolitically, Džihić noted that Europe has yet to formulate a comprehensive response to the region's significant challenges. These include not only hybrid threats but also economic pressures and various forms of hybrid warfare, particularly from Russia and China. He predicts a new kind of geopolitical and geo-economic battle will unfold in this semi-periphery, and he is uncertain if Europe will possess sufficient strength to remain the dominant force.

The situation in Ukraine is also a major factor, with its development significantly impacting all of Europe, including the Western Balkans and the enlargement process. Džihić emphasized that the Ukrainian issue currently overshadows the Western Balkans agenda. He concluded by stating that the semi-periphery is always sensitive to shifts in the center, implying that instability or changes in major European powers will inevitably be felt in the region.

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Da Evropa još nije našla odgovor na krupnije geopolitičke izazove u regionu, ne samo hibridne, nego i ekonomske, razne vrste hibridnog ratovanja, mislim na Rusiju, Kinu, tu ćemo videti na toj semiperiferiji novu vrstu geopolitičke i geoekonomske bitke, nisam siguran da će Evropa biti dovoljna jaka da prevagne i svuda ostane dominantna geopolitička i geoekonomska sila