What Happens to NATO If France Leaves? The Option Becomes Increasingly Realistic: 'Very, Very Dangerous'

NATO is increasingly preparing for the possibility that France's next president could significantly alter the country's relationship with the alliance, with potential withdrawal becoming a more realistic scenario. As the 2027 presidential elections approach, candidates openly questioning France's NATO membership are gaining traction. Recent polls indicate that approximately half of French voters support more hardline political options that harbor reservations about the alliance.

Key figures like Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally, advocate for France's withdrawal from NATO's integrated command structure. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a prominent far-left leader, has called for a complete exit from the alliance. These potential shifts are viewed with serious concern in Brussels, particularly at a time when NATO faces potential reductions in U.S. military presence in Europe and is simultaneously bolstering its defenses against perceived Russian threats.

France holds a critical position within NATO as the only nuclear power in the European Union and possesses substantial conventional military capabilities. "Losing France would be terrible," a NATO diplomat told Politico, warning that Paris's withdrawal amid a U.S. drawdown would be especially perilous. France has a complex history with NATO; President Charles de Gaulle withdrew the country from integrated military structures in 1966 to assert national sovereignty, leading to the relocation of NATO headquarters. However, France remained in political structures and fully reintegrated into the military command in 2009 under President Nicolas Sarkozy.

Experts suggest that a renewed distancing from NATO might not necessarily mean a complete break in relations, but the consequences would depend heavily on the incoming president. French presidential elections involve a two-round system, which has historically helped moderate candidates prevail over more radical ones. However, there are growing fears that this pattern may no longer hold. Le Pen has clearly stated her position, advocating for France to leave the integrated command and even suggesting a renewal of ties with Russia, a move that has reportedly strengthened pro-Russian factions within her party, further alarming allies.

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Losing France would be terrible.