What Labor's safe seat loss to One Nation means for Australian politics

Labor's loss of Secret Harbour, a Western Australian seat it had held since at least 1989, has forced the party to examine how it lost a long-standing stronghold to One Nation.

The defeat did not surprise Labor. Internal polling in the weeks before veteran minister Paul Papalia resigned reportedly showed One Nation on track to win the by-election. Labor lost 23% of its primary vote and suffered a 19% swing.

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When you have underlying issues that the government find difficult to resolve, you can campaign all you like but you can't necessarily make housing cheaper, you can't necessarily make the cost of living more affordable overnight.

The electorate is a coastal, outer-suburban area populated largely by young working families. Its residents are more likely to have vocational qualifications than university degrees, and the area is less multicultural than Western Australia as a whole. Secret Harbour also recorded the state's eighth-highest One Nation vote at the previous state election.

Voters told the ABC they were frustrated with politicians, the cost of living, housing pressures and their future prospects. Many said they were sending a message to the government, although they did not always agree on what change should look like. Politics professor Martin Drum said governments could not make housing cheaper or living costs more affordable overnight when underlying problems remained unresolved.

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People want change, they're not happy with the current situation.

One Nation supporters celebrated the result. Gabriel Vandermerwe, who placed One Nation second behind the Australian Christians, said people were unhappy with the current situation. But the party's rise also worried some residents. Hank Vandenbelt, an immigrant who lives in the electorate but could not vote because he is not an Australian citizen, said he was concerned about an anti-immigrant mood.

The by-election is being treated as a test of a Labor-One Nation contest and another data point for the major parties before statewide elections in Victoria and New South Wales. Labor figures reportedly called Secret Harbour the worst seat to contest at the worst time, but the result has widened the party's post-election questions.

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I'm a little bit concerned about the rise of One Nation … I'm an immigrant myself, I'm not even a citizen but there's some mood against immigrants.