What's at stake in Armenia's election on Sunday?

Armenia is heading to the polls for a parliamentary election that pits the governing Civil Contract party, led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, against a spectrum of opposition groups, many with pro-Russian leanings. Opinion polls suggest Civil Contract will emerge as the largest party, though it may not secure the two-thirds majority needed for constitutional amendments. The election is widely viewed as a referendum on Pashinyan's handling of the peace process with Azerbaijan. Critics argue he has made too many concessions to Baku, which regained full control of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023, prompting nearly all ethnic Armenians to flee the region. Armenia, a landlocked nation of about 3 million, has a long history of conflict with Azerbaijan, primarily over Nagorno-Karabakh. Russia, a traditional ally, has intensified pressure on Armenia ahead of the vote. Moscow has restricted Armenian exports and threatened energy supply cuts, while also warning Armenia against seeking European Union membership. Armenia, however, is actively pursuing closer ties with the West, having initiated an EU accession process and seeking to position itself as a key European partner in the South Caucasus. A proposed transit corridor across Armenian territory, part of the peace agreement with Azerbaijan, could also better connect Asia and Europe, bypassing Russia. Additionally, a recent agreement with the U.S. could lead to an American company building a new nuclear reactor in Armenia. The pro-Russian opposition, dominated by groups tied to former presidents, is campaigning on a platform of maintaining close ties with Moscow and criticizing Pashinyan's Western outreach.