What to Expect from Sheinbaum’s Second State of the Government Report

Claudia Sheinbaum’s second government report is expected to present Mexico as stable, attractive to investors, better paid and economically growing. But the figures behind that message may require more context, according to the analysis.

The government is expected to highlight $34.504 billion in foreign direct investment during the first half of 2026, a record amount. Yet annual growth reached only 2.1%, its lowest level since 2020. Reinvested profits accounted for 88.5% of the total, while new investment fell 13.4% and represented just 14% of the figure. In previous administrations, new investment accounted for about 40%.

The same caution applies to exports, whose record level reflects in part a surge in advance purchases linked to fears of new tariffs. Mexico’s proximity to the United States remains a major advantage, but the country is also exposed to decisions it cannot control, including those involving the renegotiation of the USMCA and tariffs imposed months ago.

Wages have improved. The average daily base salary recorded by Mexico’s Social Security Institute reached 673.9 pesos in July, its highest recorded level, following increases in the minimum wage. But the figure covers only formal employment, while 55% of employed people work informally. The number of employers registered with the institute has also fallen for 25 consecutive months, dropping 2.5% over the past year.

The unemployment rate, officially the jobless rate, stood at 2.7% in the second quarter, among the lowest in the OECD. In an economy with extensive informality, however, a low rate does not necessarily mean enough well-paid work. The analysis argues that the report should be read by distinguishing record figures from trends that can actually endure.