What Would a New Falklands War Look Like? Britain Still Holds a Huge Military Advantage Over Argentina

The Falkland Islands have returned to the center of a political confrontation between Argentina and the United Kingdom, with Javier Milei combining a renewed sovereignty claim with pressure on companies exploring for oil in the surrounding waters.

Argentina’s president has said Buenos Aires will use every available state instrument to stop oil exploitation around the islands, including diplomatic, economic, legal and judicial measures. He has also repeated Argentina’s longstanding position that the islands are Argentine territory and rejected their inhabitants’ right to self-determination.

The Sea Lion field has drawn particular attention. It is estimated to contain about 1.7 billion barrels of oil. Although Milei has not threatened military action, Argentina has announced plans to build a naval base in Tierra del Fuego, the part of the Argentine mainland closest to the Falklands.

That has revived a question not seriously considered since 1982: what would happen if Argentina and Britain went to war again? Argentina initially had a numerical advantage during the Falklands War, with about 13,000 troops on the islands and more than 200 aircraft. Britain nevertheless reversed the balance after sending a task force nearly 13,000 kilometers across the Atlantic. Nuclear submarines, Sea Harrier aircraft and better-trained professional infantry played key roles. The war killed 907 people, including 255 British servicemen.

More than 40 years later, the military balance still favors London, and the gap has widened in some areas, according to the ATLAS Index. Britain scored 52.5 out of 100 and Argentina 29.4. The index compares defense budgets, personnel, land forces, naval forces, air forces and nuclear deterrence, with Britain ahead in every category.