What Would Happen If Putin No Longer Led Russia? A Princeton Political Scientist's Answer: 'The Entire Circle Around Him Is Made Up of Ultranationalists'

The possibility of Vladimir Putin leaving power is often discussed with the hope of achieving peace and democratic reform in Russia. However, Isabelle DeSisto, a political scientist at Princeton University specializing in the post-Soviet space, cautions against such optimism. In an interview with "Adevărul," DeSisto explained that Putin's disappearance from the political scene would not automatically usher in a new era for Russia, nor would it guarantee an end to the conflict in Ukraine.

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The disappearance of Putin does not automatically mean change in Russia.

DeSisto suggests that any potential successors to Putin are likely to emerge from within his inner circle, possibly from the ranks of the FSB or the military. She warns that these individuals are deeply ultranationalist, sharing a similar ideological outlook to Putin. This, she argues, means that Russia is unlikely to transition into a democracy in the foreseeable future, regardless of who holds the top leadership position.

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potential successors from the FSB or the army are just as nationalist, which is why Russia will not become a democracy anytime soon.

The expert also addressed the state of the Russian opposition, noting that it appears weaker and more fragmented than before. DeSisto pointed to the repressive measures implemented by the Putin regime as a significant factor in this decline. Furthermore, the opposition in exile is highly divided, a situation exacerbated by the death of Alexei Navalny. DeSisto described Navalny as a charismatic and powerful leader, whose absence has left a significant void. She expressed doubt that anyone within his former team or the broader opposition movement can effectively fill his role and unite the disparate factions.

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the opposition in exile is very fragmented.

Information emerging from Russia is often contradictory and unreliable, making predictions difficult. DeSisto relies on a combination of Western press reports and Russian-language opposition websites to piece together a picture of the internal situation. She acknowledges that official Russian sources are heavily influenced by propaganda. The lack of predictability and the closed nature of the country present considerable challenges for external analysis, but DeSisto's assessment points to a grim outlook for democratic change in Russia, even in a post-Putin scenario.

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After Alexei Navalny died - that is, he was killed by Putin, because we know there is evidence that he was poisoned when he was in that penal colony - the opposition is no longer as united and strong as it was before his death.