When Will Falling Crude Deliver Cheaper Petrol?

Consumers in Nigeria are demanding relief at the pump as international crude oil prices have fallen sharply, yet petrol prices remain stubbornly high. Brent crude has retreated from over $110 per barrel during the Middle East crisis to around $70-$75, but the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) continues to hover near N1,200 per litre in many areas, compared to N800-N900 previously. This disparity fuels public perception that fuel marketers are quick to raise prices when costs climb but slow to pass on savings when they fall.

The Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) has acknowledged these concerns, stating it will investigate any evidence of exploitative pricing or anti-competitive behavior. The Minister of Finance and the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, also confirmed that the government is in talks with marketers and regulators to ensure greater transparency in how global crude price changes affect domestic pump prices. The challenge, he noted, is balancing consumer protection with the commercial viability of operators.

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while the commission does not regulate prices in a deregulated market, it would investigate any evidence of exploitative pricing or anti-competitive practices that undermine consumer welfare.

Beneath the public debate lies a complex market reality underscored by recent data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA). Figures show a significant shift towards domestic refining, with local refineries supplying 87.6% of total PMS in May 2026. Despite this increased local production, imports still play a role in bridging supply gaps, and ironically, average daily petrol imports rose by nearly 60% in the same period.

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the challenge lies in protecting consumers without undermining operators’ commercial viability.