Where Trump has lost support with independents, according to AP-NORC polling

Independents have become increasingly unhappy with President Donald Trump during his second term, according to a new analysis of AP-NORC polling data. The research, conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, reveals a notable shift, particularly among independents without a college degree. While roughly half of this group held a positive view of Trump around the 2024 election, his approval rating among them has dropped to about one-quarter this spring.

This decline has effectively erased the education gap that previously existed among independents before Trump began his second term. Now, independents tend to hold similarly negative views of the president, regardless of their educational background. The analysis aggregated nearly two dozen AP-NORC polls conducted between July 2024 and April 2026, allowing researchers to examine shifts in support during key periods of Trump's presidency, including the latter half of 2024, his first 100 days, the summer of 2025, the fall government shutdown, and the beginning of the Iran war.

The compiled polling data indicates a steady decrease in Trump's standing among independents throughout his second term. His support has also waned among smaller but significant groups, such as Black and Hispanic independents, who had previously leaned towards him in the 2024 presidential election. With more Americans identifying as independents, any erosion of support within this demographic could pose challenges for Trump and the Republican party heading into the midterm elections.

Tafari Torres, a senior research associate at NORC and co-author of the analysis, observed that while views of Trump among Democrats and Republicans have remained relatively stable, independents' opinions continue to evolve. "Independents are, broadly, the people who are reacting to the events and dropping in their support," Torres stated. The analysis highlights that Trump's return to the White House was partly propelled by independent voters who saw him as a strong candidate on economic issues. However, his favorability and approval ratings among this group soured quickly after he assumed office.

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Independents are, broadly, the people who are reacting to the events and dropping in their support.