Who will succeed Netanyahu? Likud members back Ohana as party primaries loom - poll

A recent Agam Institute poll indicates a potential significant shift in the composition of the Likud party's Knesset slate, with only about 20 of its current ministers and MKs expected to secure seats if the party wins 30 seats. Researchers emphasized that this 30-seat scenario is considerably higher than current polling projections.

The poll highlights stark contrasts between the preferences of registered Likud members and the broader Likud electorate. Veteran politicians like David Amsalem, Miki Zohar, and David Bitan are projected to fall down the list, making way for new faces. This trend is described as a dramatic change, with established figures losing ground to emerging candidates.

However, the poll's findings regarding registered party members are noted as reflecting "free" voters, potentially not accounting for organized voting blocs crucial in Likud primaries. Reserved slots on the party list appear to have "saved" Haim Katz and Gideon Sa'ar, and kept Israel Katz within the top 10, despite Haim Katz ranking only 35th among registered members in a raw simulation.

When it comes to leadership succession for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel Katz ranks sixth among registered party members, with 10.3%, and fourth among Likud voters, with 11.3%. His weaker showing among party members is attributed to frustration over the security campaign. Following the incorporation of reserved slots, Katz is placed fifth in the simulated party slate.

Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana emerges as the leading choice among registered party members for Likud's leadership after Netanyahu, securing 73% support. Tally Gotliv and Boaz Bismuth follow with 70% and 69.2% respectively. Ohana also leads among loyal Likud voters. However, Nir Barkat leads among wavering voters and those who have left the party. While Gotliv and Shlomo Karhi perform better with the registered base, Barkat, Yariv Levin, and Miki Zohar gain more traction with the broader Likud electorate. Ohana is the preferred successor among registered party members with 22.9%, while Barkat leads among Likud voters with 19%.