Why Iran favors prolonged diplomacy in US preliminary deal talks - analysis

Iran favors a drawn-out diplomatic process in its preliminary deal with the United States, a strategy that injects complexity and delay into the negotiations. Tehran believes this approach benefits the country by making it harder for the U.S. to withdraw from the agreement and by creating more points for future discussion.

This method aligns with Iran's historical deal-making tactics, including its approach to the 2015 nuclear deal. The country operates on the belief that time is an ally and that regional partners such as Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, and Oman will advocate for its interests in Washington and elsewhere. The international community's preference for diplomacy over conflict, as evidenced by global praise for the potential deal, further bolsters Iran's position.

The emerging agreement is expected to lift blockades on the Strait of Hormuz, a move that could stimulate economic growth and trade. Iran anticipates that once these economic shifts are in motion, countries will be reluctant to revert to conflict due to the potential for trade disruptions. By extending the process, Tehran aims to establish regional momentum towards diplomacy, creating inertia that discourles new hostilities.

Similarly, the White House appears to favor diplomacy over war, opting for low-level strikes since an April ceasefire rather than a full-scale conflict. This aligns with Iran's preference for contained, "tit-for-tat" exchanges over larger confrontations, a strategy it has previously employed through proxies in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen.