Why Israeli officials fear Iran-backed Hezbollah could still rearm despite Lebanon deal - exclusive

Top Israeli officials are concerned that Iran-backed Hezbollah could still rearm effectively, even with a recent ceasefire in place for Lebanon. These fears are amplified by the potential for Iran to receive billions of dollars from its ceasefire deal with the U.S., which could then be channeled to Hezbollah.

Hezbollah faces new obstacles in its rearmament efforts. The Assad regime, which previously allowed free passage for Hezbollah-Iran weapons smuggling through Syria, has fallen. The new Sunni regime led by Ahmad al-Sharaa is actively hunting Hezbollah-Iranian operatives attempting to smuggle weapons across Syrian territory. This has closed off previously open highways and numerous smuggling routes. Furthermore, Hezbollah has reportedly lost substantial industrial-scale weapons manufacturing capabilities in both Syria and Lebanon.

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The current state of play with whether Hezbollah can rearm itself in this ceasefire period and who well and rapidly it can do so are highly dynamic.

Despite these setbacks, intelligence suggests Hezbollah is still managing to smuggle lower-grade weapons. This is reportedly occurring through portions of the porous Lebanese-Syrian border and other means, especially since the ceasefires began. Historical cross-border smuggling networks in the region remain active, regardless of who is in power. This continues even after Israel directly targeted Hezbollah's special smuggling Unit 4400. While remaining smugglers may be less efficient, the flow of arms has not been entirely halted.

Israeli officials are particularly worried about the speed and scope of any potential rearming Hezbollah could accomplish. While the group's ability to smuggle strategic weapons has been reduced, it is far from running out of options. The dynamic nature of the situation means that Hezbollah's capacity to rearm itself remains a significant concern for Israel's security.

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On one hand, the speed and scope of the rearming Hezbollah can accomplish have been radically reduced, while on the other hand, the terror group is far from running out of options for smuggling in new weapons.