Why it's tough to go digging for oil in the oceans, and why India is spending ₹84,084 crore trying to

India's Union cabinet has approved 'Samudra Manthan,' a significant five-year, ₹84,084 crore ($10 billion) scheme aimed at revitalizing domestic oil and gas exploration off the country's coast. The ambitious plan seeks to acquire modern seismic data across India's offshore basins, drill 60 deepwater exploration wells with the government covering half the costs, and establish shared infrastructure to facilitate production of any discoveries.

If successful, the initiative could boost India's domestic output from approximately 62 million tonnes of oil equivalent per year to 80 million tonnes. This endeavor is crucial as India's crude production has declined from 36.9 million tonnes in 2015-16 to an estimated 28.7 million tonnes in 2024-25. Consequently, import dependency has climbed to a record 88.7% in the last financial year.

The urgency for 'Samudra Manthan' is amplified by global geopolitical factors. The International Energy Agency and OPEC identify India as the largest source of new oil demand between now and 2050. The ongoing conflict in West Asia has repeatedly disrupted vital supply routes, such as through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. This has forced Indian refiners to reroute cargoes, absorb higher freight and insurance costs, and reconsider their import strategies, as single geopolitical shocks can significantly impact landed prices.

Finding oil offshore is inherently challenging. Oil exists in microscopic pore spaces within specific rock formations, requiring a precise combination of geological conditions. Geologists refer to this as a working petroleum system, which necessitates the presence of a source rock rich in organic matter, a porous reservoir rock, an impermeable seal to prevent leakage, and a geological trap to concentrate the oil. The timing of these elements must also align perfectly. Exploration success rates for offshore wildcat wells were just under 25% in 2020, highlighting the high failure rate in the industry.

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Samudra Manthan budgets ₹43,200 crore for 60 offshore oil wells and offers government support for drilling costs.