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🇳🇬 Nigeria /Elections & Politics

Why Peter Obi, Abubakar Atiku Can’t Form Coalition, Says Strategist

From ThisDay · () English

Translated from English, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

Analysis Named sources Context piece
  • Political strategist Umar Ardo believes Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar cannot form a viable coalition for the upcoming presidential election.
  • Ardo cited Obi's potential loss of support if he withdraws and Abubakar's unlikelihood of stepping down as key obstacles.
  • Despite these challenges, Ardo suggested that either candidate could still win the election individually with effective strategy.

A potential coalition between presidential candidates Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar faces significant hurdles, according to political strategist Umar Ardo. Ardo, convener of the League of Northern Democrats, stated that Abubakar, the 2023 Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential candidate, lacks the inclination to withdraw from the race.

My view is that Atiku does not have the propensity by himself to say, ‘I will step down.’ If he says so, he will not have a problem with his support base. But the issue is that he is highly unlikely to say that.

— Umar ArdoExplaining the challenges for Atiku Abubakar in forming a coalition.

"My view is that Atiku does not have the propensity by himself to say, ‘I will step down,’" Ardo explained in an interview with ARISE NEWS. He added that while Abubakar would likely retain his support base if he did withdraw, "the issue is that he is highly unlikely to say that."

Then Peter Obi has the propensity to say, ‘I will step down.’ But if he says so, he will not have his support base. He will not be able to carry his support base. His support base will not go with him.

— Umar ArdoDetailing the potential consequences for Peter Obi if he were to withdraw.

Conversely, Ardo believes Peter Obi, the presidential candidate for the African Democratic Congress (ADC), has the propensity to step aside. However, he cautioned that such a move could alienate his supporters. "If he says so, he will not have his support base. He will not be able to carry his support base. His support base will not go with him," Ardo elaborated.

So, now, these are the two problems. Unless we can resolve these two challenges, then I don’t see the fusing together being possible.

— Umar ArdoSummarizing the main obstacles to a coalition between Obi and Abubakar.

These two challenges – Abubakar's reluctance to withdraw and the potential backlash Obi would face from his supporters if he did – present a significant obstacle to a robust merger. "Unless we can resolve these two challenges, then I don’t see the fusing together being possible," Ardo concluded. Nevertheless, he noted that either candidate, running individually, possesses the capacity to challenge the incumbent if they strategize effectively.

However, even if they do not fuse, any of them, individually, has the capacity to upend the order, depending on how he strategizes.

— Umar ArdoAssessing the individual potential of Obi and Abubakar in the election.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by ThisDay in English. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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