Why Russian failures in Romania and Germany are only an illusion, military analysts warn

Russian intelligence services, especially the FSB, are stepping up activity across the European Union, from Britain to NATO’s eastern flank, according to Adevărul. Germany appears to have become a preferred target, while Romania and Poland are also described as being on Moscow’s radar.

In Germany, three suspicious incidents occurred in a single day: two at power plants and one at a railway station in Bavaria. German intelligence services attribute the incidents to Russia, the article says. All three apparently failed, as did an attack at Leipzig airport that German officials also reportedly link to Russia.

Romania and Poland feature in the same picture. A “stray” drone near Neptun Deep and a fire at a drone factory in Poland are cited as developments from the past month. Yet the article says Russian operations share a common feature: they appear, at least most of the time, to fail.

That raises a broader question. Are the apparent failures evidence that the feared FSB agents have become less professional? Or have European intelligence, espionage and counterintelligence services developed defenses against Russia’s hybrid war? Adevărul consulted military and intelligence experts to explore those possibilities.

One expert is retired Commander Sandu Valentin Mateiu, a former naval officer and member of the Naval Forces’ intelligence structures who later worked for a long period as an analyst at Romania’s Ministry of National Defence. Discussing the reported attack in Leipzig, he said Russia’s hybrid actions would not cross a certain threshold, although that threshold would keep rising.

“I believe we will remain in this situation of hybrid warfare, but the limit of this hybrid war will rise more and more,” Mateiu said. He linked the prospect to increasing incidents for frontline states as the war between Ukraine and Russia intensifies. The supplied article ends during his explanation.

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I believe we will remain in this situation of hybrid warfare, but the limit of this hybrid war will rise more and more.