Why the Houthis and Saudi Arabia may come to blows - analysis

The Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen appear poised to reignite conflict with Saudi Arabia, escalating tensions after claiming Riyadh struck Sana'a airport. This incident, the second in two weeks where the Houthis threatened retaliation if Saudi Arabia blocked flights from Iran, signals a potential shift from the recent de-escalation in Yemen.

The Houthis' stated goal is to establish an air bridge to Iran, ostensibly to break the "siege" on Sana'a. However, this move could also facilitate the import of weapons, raising concerns for regional stability. The group has a history of targeting Saudi Arabia, having done so numerous times since the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen began in 2015.

Recent Houthi attacks on Israel after October 7, 2023, and increased activity in 2025, suggest a broader pattern of engagement within the Iranian-backed "axis." The Houthis may have been encouraged by recent Saudi distractions, such as a dispute with the UAE over control in Yemen. The divergence of interests between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, former allies in the 2015 intervention, adds another layer of complexity to the regional dynamics.

The situation is further complicated by recent events, including US strikes in the Strait of Hormuz and Israel's increased involvement in the Red Sea, such as recognizing Somaliland. The appearance of an Iranian envoy in Yemen and flights from Iran to Sana'a, reportedly operated by Mahan Air, indicate a coordinated effort and a rising crisis.