Why war has made Iran's leadership frictions more 'consequential'

Masoud Pezeshkian ascended to the Iranian presidency in 2024, presenting himself as a modern leader aiming for a new era. A former cardiac surgeon, he was perceived as less hardline and more moderate than his predecessor, Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash. Pezeshkian, backed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, initially expressed a desire for cooperation with the West, stating Iran would only thrive through cohesion and would not seek to destabilize the Middle East.

However, as president, Pezeshkian has faced considerable pressure from conservative critics. The situation has become more complex following a protracted war involving Iran, the United States, and Israel. This has led to reports, such as one from Iran International, alleging that Pezeshkian had resigned due to a power struggle with the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Iranian state media swiftly denied these resignation reports, labeling them as "rumor-mongering" by foreign outlets. While the claims could not be independently verified, they emerged at a highly turbulent time for Iran's leadership. The country is still reeling from the death of its supreme leader in February due to an Israeli strike, and the subsequent conflict has claimed the lives of other senior Iranian figures, forcing some survivors into hiding.

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We do not wish to be the cause of instability in the Middle East.

Adding to the instability, Iran is simultaneously contending with severe water and energy shortages, the impact of international sanctions, high inflation, and weak economic growth. The military defeat of many of its regional allies further compounds these challenges. Professor Ali Ansari of the University of St Andrews described the situation as the regime undergoing a "transformation and transition of sorts," with the outcome remaining uncertain.

The unconfirmed reports of leadership fissures, coupled with the ongoing war and domestic crises, introduce another layer of uncertainty to Iran's already fraught geopolitical and economic landscape. The presidency, once seen as a potential shift towards moderation, is now caught in a vortex of internal friction and external conflict.

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The regime is clearly going through a transformation and transition of sorts.