Will Hamas Disarm? Experts Skeptical of Trump's Gaza Deal

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has declared a potential "huge moment in Palestinian history," announcing an agreement for Hamas to completely disarm, which he stated would be followed by an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Trump described this as a "monumental step toward lasting PEACE and SECURITY." However, Middle East analysts are expressing significant skepticism about the feasibility of Hamas willingly relinquishing its weapons or Israel agreeing to a total withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.

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This is a monumental step toward lasting PEACE and SECURITY.

Hamas, the governing authority in Gaza and designated a terrorist group by several nations, has reportedly told news agency AFP that "an agreement has been reached regarding the issue of weapons." Israel has not yet officially responded to the announcement. The context for this development is a ceasefire declared in October 2025 after two years of intense conflict, which resulted in over 70,000 deaths in Gaza, predominantly civilians, according to Palestinian health authorities. This ceasefire was part of a U.S.-proposed "20-point peace plan."

The earlier ceasefire deal stipulated the exchange of surviving Israeli hostages and the remains of deceased hostages for approximately 2,000 Palestinian prisoners held in Israel. It also established a "Board of Peace" to manage Gaza's transition and implement the 20 points. Trump's recent announcement highlights two key purported breakthroughs: the disarmament of Hamas and "all other armed groups" in Gaza, and the withdrawal of Israeli forces. The Board of Peace has stated that the agreement "holds the promise of delivering significant benefits to the people of Gaza … and security to the people of Israel."

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an agreement has been reached regarding the issue of weapons

Despite these claims, Middle East experts remain doubtful. Martin Kear, a Middle East politics analyst at the University of Sydney, called the announcement a "huge surprise" but expressed strong reservations about Hamas's commitment to complete disarmament. "I would find it difficult to believe that Hamas has agreed to completely disarm, because in the past that has always been contingent on Israel ceasing the occupation of the West Bank, Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem, which is never going to happen," Kear told ABC News.

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holds the promise of delivering significant benefits to the people of Gaza … and security to the people of Israel

Hamas has historically resisted disarmament, viewing it as tantamount to surrender. The group's willingness to disarm has previously been linked to conditions such as Israel ending its occupation of Palestinian territories. Given the long-standing complexities and historical precedents, analysts suggest that the path to genuine peace and security remains fraught with challenges, and the current announcement faces considerable hurdles to full implementation.

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for the first time, Hamas officially has committed to an actionable plan for relinquishing all its weapons