Will Mahmoud Abbas actually let Palestinians vote? Critics say he's testing the waters first

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has announced legislative elections for November 28, with presidential elections slated for early 2027. This move has stirred the Palestinian political landscape, prompting quiet preparations and alliance discussions among politicians, activists, and potential candidates.

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Abbas prefers to do it in this order of elections because he fears losing the presidency to his rivals, whether from Fatah or Hamas.

However, doubts linger among Palestinians about the implications of these elections. Critics argue that Abbas's decision to hold legislative elections before the presidential vote is a strategic maneuver. They believe he aims to test the political waters and solidify his standing before committing to a presidential race, which he fears losing to rivals within Fatah or Hamas.

This sequencing contrasts with Hamas's long-standing demand for simultaneous presidential and legislative elections. Analyst Omar Rahal explained that Abbas likely wants to assess the outcome of the parliamentary vote to understand the distribution of power before proceeding with a presidential election. "If Abbas’s rivals gain significant support, he may still have time to maneuver and potentially delay a presidential vote," Rahal said. "But if he goes to a presidential vote first and loses, then there is nothing much he can do to fix or reverse it."

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He seeks to see how the legislative council is shaped; who wins, who gets the most seats.

Hamas has remained non-committal regarding participation. Rahal suggested the group might avoid official candidacy due to anticipated Israeli crackdowns. Furthermore, Abbas's recent legal amendment requiring candidates to endorse PLO policies, including the Oslo Accords and recognition of Israel, poses a significant hurdle for Hamas, which rejects these conditions. Despite this, some observers anticipate Hamas might support independent candidates aligned with their interests.

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If Abbas’s rivals gain significant support, he may still have time to maneuver and potentially delay a presidential vote. But if he goes to a presidential vote first and loses, then there is nothing much he can do to fix or reverse it.