Will mortgage interest rates improve this September? 3 things to consider now

Borrowers looking to secure a mortgage or refinance an existing one are keenly anticipating September, hoping for a positive shift in interest rates. Following a period where rates improved significantly in 2025, much of those gains were reversed in 2026, leaving purchase and refinance rates stubbornly high in recent months.

Several key economic events are scheduled for September that could impact the mortgage interest rate climate. An inflation report is due on September 11, followed by a Federal Reserve meeting the subsequent week. Additionally, unemployment numbers will be released earlier in the month. These data points have the potential to influence market conditions and, consequently, mortgage rates.

Geopolitical tensions and overseas conflicts have been identified as a major driver of recent rate increases. The conflict in Iran, for instance, contributed to a spike in oil prices and inflation, pushing mortgage rates up. If these geopolitical factors ease in September, it could lead to a cooling of the broader interest rate environment, potentially resulting in lower mortgage rates, although any reduction might be minimal.

While projecting future rate movements with precision is difficult, borrowers should monitor these upcoming economic indicators and geopolitical developments. Understanding these factors can help them identify potential opportunities to lock in a favorable rate, even if temporary, in a market that has offered limited options for affordable deals recently.