Will SpaceX trigger a stock market crash as boom nears its peak?

Global stock markets are experiencing a prolonged boom, with major indices like the S&P 500 nearly tripling since 2019. This surge is largely fueled by a small number of technology giants, raising questions about its long-term sustainability.

Several factors contribute to market anxieties. Ongoing conflicts on three continents, the potential for energy market instability due to hostilities with Iran, and rising inflation all cast a shadow. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting in August could see an interest rate hike, a move some believe could derail the current market frenzy.

Defenders of the boom point to the resilience of tech stocks during previous post-COVID rate hikes. However, deeper structural shifts may be at play. A global trend of decreasing company listings, with the number of companies on Wall Street halving since 1990, has concentrated investment. As fewer companies are available, more capital flows into a smaller pool of stocks, artificially boosting returns. This trend, exacerbated by private equity firms acquiring undervalued companies and potential newcomers, has created a scenario where fewer companies drive higher stock prices.