Will Trump Benefit the Korean Peninsula?

Donald Trump's recent decision to scale back major joint military exercises between the United States and South Korea, citing their cost and perceived provocation of North Korea, is a move that surprises few familiar with his "America First" approach. Had the Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) exercise not already begun, Trump might have canceled it entirely. This action, coupled with his public complaints about South Korea's insufficient support in international affairs, particularly regarding Iran, highlights his transactional view of alliances.

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Trump, who showed rude behavior, cited the high cost of the training and the fact that it was 'completely inappropriate and hostile' toward North Korea as reasons.

Trump's rationale, however, overlooks North Korea's own lack of support for the U.S. and its consistent alignment with Iran. Despite Pyongyang's anti-American rhetoric, Trump has continued to express a peculiar affinity for North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, a pattern consistent with his first term. During that period, he pursued agreements with North Korea and frequently criticized South Korea for not bearing enough of the alliance's financial burden, yet North Korea did not abandon its nuclear weapons.

The current South Korean administration, led by President Lee Jae-myung, also desires improved relations with North Korea. Trump's actions might be seen as encouraging this direction, potentially serving as a gesture to draw North Korea back into regional dialogue. However, this perspective neglects Pyongyang's deep-seated distrust of democratic governments, which it views as inherently unreliable due to shifting political parties. Historical precedents, such as the weakening of the 1994 Geneva Agreed Framework by a Republican-controlled Congress and the dilution of inter-Korean agreements by subsequent conservative South Korean governments, fuel this skepticism.

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And who else did not help us? South Korea.

Furthermore, Kim Jong Un has little reason to trust Trump personally, given the former president's history of threatening allies and his inconsistent stances on global issues like Ukraine, Gaza, and Iran. Similarly, North Korea has witnessed numerous progressive South Korean leaders come and go, while a powerful, conservative faction consistently advocates for a hardline approach and unification on South Korea's terms. Even progressive leaders have increased defense spending and adhered to U.S. military decisions.

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North Korea, however, also did not help the United States. Rather, Pyongyang immediately sided with Tehran after the first attack.

Ultimately, President Lee's policy proposals have had limited impact on inter-Korean relations, and Trump's influence on the Korean Peninsula's dynamics is also questionable. North Korea largely dictates the mood of inter-Korean and Washington-Pyongyang relations. Currently, Kim Jong Un appears to favor the predictability of Moscow and Beijing over the fluctuating policies emanating from Washington and Seoul. While circumstances can change, it is unlikely that Trump's words or actions alone will be the catalyst for significant shifts, regardless of his social media pronouncements or personal correspondence with Kim Jong Un.

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Democratic countries are inherently unreliable because different parties take turns in power.